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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
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Industrial Civilization doesn't evolve. Rather, it rapidly consumes "the necessary physical prerequisites" for its own existence. It's short-term, unsustainable. "This is a one shot affair.... there will be one chance, and one chance only."

Energy-use per person is used as a measurable index of industrialization. In 1989, I proposed the Olduvai theory of Industrial Civilization, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Industrial Civilization can be described by a single pulse waveform of duration X, as measured by average energy-use per person per year. The life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than one-hundred (100) years: i.e., X < 100 years. In 1989 I postulated that per capita energy-use had peaked and was already on the decline. But back then I lacked sufficient data to test the theory.

By 1996, however, I had successfully tested the Olduvai theory against numerous sets of data. Four of these tests are graphed in Figure 2. The following facts emerge...

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